Welcome to the Intelligence Analysis Daily News Update, here is your update for Monday, November 24, 2025.
HEADLINES
Trump Administration Designates Venezuelan Cartel de los Soles as Foreign Terrorist Organization, Signaling Potential Military Escalation
Russia Intensifies Ukraine Operations with Heavy Attacks; Ceasefire Negotiations Progress as Trump Hints at “Big Progress”
Israeli Military Leadership Dismisses Senior Commanders Following Turgeman Commission Findings on October 7 Failures
Hezbollah Signals Strong Response to Israeli Airstrikes Following Death of Senior Military Commander
NATO Strengthens Arctic Defense Posture as Russia and China Challenge Regional Rules
STRATEGIC AMERICAS THEATER
Trump Administration Takes Aggressive Stance on Venezuela
The Trump administration announced Monday that it will formally designate Cartel de los Soles as a foreign terrorist organization, marking the latest escalation in its intensifying campaign against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his associates. The move represents a significant shift in U.S. strategy, broadening the definition of terrorist organizations beyond traditional political actors to include criminal drug trafficking networks. This designation provides what Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth described as “a multitude of new options for the United States” in addressing the threat posed by Maduro’s network, though Hegseth notably refrained from confirming whether these options would include direct military strikes against Venezuelan territory.
The designation comes amid a substantial U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean and off the Venezuelan coast. U.S. naval forces have established a significant presence, including the world’s largest aircraft carrier, ten naval vessels, four MH-6 helicopters, 2,200 embarked marines, and ten F-35 fighter jets stationed in Puerto Rico. These forces have conducted targeted strikes on drug-related assets, resulting in over 80 fatalities. While ongoing U.S. military activity suggests more anti-drug trafficking strikes are likely in the immediate to two-month outlook, officials indicate any attempt to force government change would require internal support from Venezuela’s military leadership, which remains strongly supportive of Maduro.
Administration officials have privately indicated they view Maduro’s governance as “not sustainable,” and there is a prevailing belief within Trump’s team that a scenario where Maduro remains in power would be unacceptable. The Justice Department has increased the reward for information leading to Maduro’s arrest to $50 million. Maduro has consistently denied drug trafficking allegations, characterizing U.S. actions as a fabricated narrative designed to justify regime change. However, a 2024 indictment accused Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and Defense Minister Padrino López of conspiring with Colombian insurgents to flood the United States with cocaine.
EASTERN EUROPEAN THEATER: UKRAINE
Intense Combat Continues as Peace Talks Advance
The situation on the Ukrainian frontlines remains dire, with 191 combat clashes reported on November 23 as Russian forces maintained aggressive offensive operations across 12 directions. The heaviest fighting concentrated near Pokrovsk, where Ukrainian defenders repelled 62 assaults throughout the day. Russian forces conducted 52 airstrikes, deployed 129 guided bombs, executed 5,628 shelling attacks, and launched 5,628 kamikaze drone strikes. Despite Ukrainian air defense efforts, airstrikes targeted civilian areas in Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Huliaipole, Vozdvyzhivka, and Prydniprovske.
The human toll of the war continues to mount dramatically. Since the full-scale invasion began on February 24, 2022, Russian personnel losses have reached approximately 1,166,450, with 1,190 additional losses recorded in a single 24-hour period. Material losses on the Russian side include 11,366 tanks destroyed, 23,620 armored vehicles, 34,626 artillery systems, 1,549 multiple launch rocket systems, and 1,248 air defense units.
Civilian casualties remain a critical concern. Russian drone strikes on Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, killed four civilians and wounded 13, including two children, overnight. Eight residential buildings, one educational facility, and power lines sustained damage from these attacks. Ukraine’s air force reported that Russia fired 162 strike and decoy drones over the country overnight.
Peace Negotiations Show Tentative Progress
Parallel to the military intensity, negotiations aimed at ending the conflict have demonstrated what European officials describe as “progress.” President Trump hinted that “big progress” has been achieved in ongoing talks, following what officials characterized as “constructive” discussions in Switzerland. Both Ukraine and the United States have developed “a revised and enhanced peace plan,” though details remain limited. The European Union indicated it would discuss the U.S. proposals during meetings with African leaders in Angola, suggesting broader diplomatic engagement on the conflict’s resolution.
However, the proposed plan contains substantial concessions. Reports indicate it would require Ukraine to accept territorial losses to Moscow and accept a reduced military force, leaving the country potentially vulnerable to future Russian aggression. This remains a contentious point among Ukrainian leadership and European partners who worry about Ukraine’s long-term security arrangements.
MIDDLE EAST THEATER
Israeli Military Purge Follows October 7 Accountability Review
Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir has initiated disciplinary proceedings against senior military commanders as recommended by the Turgeman Commission, which investigated IDF failures surrounding the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks. Former Head of Military Intelligence Aharon Haliva will be released from reserve service, and Head of Operations Directorate Oded Basiuk will be released from reserve duty. Southern Command Chief Yaron Finkelman was similarly removed from reserve duty, while Air Force Commander Tomer Bar received a command note. Navy Commander David Saar Salama received a command remark, and Operations Division Chief/Head of Military Intelligence Shlomi Binder received a command remark and requested retirement from the IDF at the end of his term.
Notably, Zamir decided against dismissing the head of the Intelligence Directorate despite his role during the October 7 failures. The Gaza Division’s intelligence officer, designated as Lt. Col. A, will be dismissed, as will a former head of the Operations Division in the Intelligence Directorate, identified as Brig. Gen. G. Several senior officers summoned by the Chief of Staff did not appear, citing scheduling constraints.
Hezbollah Signals Intent to Respond to Israeli Strikes
Hezbollah leadership indicated Monday that it is actively considering a response to recent Israeli military operations. The organization’s military leader, Haytham Ali Tabatabai, was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut, along with four others. Mahmoud Qmati, a high-ranking Hezbollah official, stated that the Israeli attack has crossed a “red line” and indicated that the organization’s leadership is deliberating on its potential course of action in response.
Hamas Negotiations with U.S. Administration
Hamas officials are reportedly engaging with Trump administration representatives in what observers view as a significant shift in diplomatic dynamics. A Hamas spokesperson in Lebanon disclosed that Hamas officials have met with U.S. representatives at least three times in recent months, including discussions with Steve Witkoff, President Trump’s special envoy. Although the U.S. demands that Hamas disarm and relinquish control of Gaza, Hamas has agreed to step back from direct governance and focus on providing charitable, welfare, and educational services as it did before assuming control of Gaza in 2007.
Palestinian sentiment toward Hamas remains complex. Hamas has been significantly weakened, with the organization’s political leaders and many military commanders eliminated. However, Hamas leaders currently based abroad, particularly in Qatar, continue efforts to reorganize and reassemble remaining political and military factions. In Gaza, Hamas faces competition from rival clans and militias for influence in areas not directly controlled by Israeli military forces.
GLOBAL SECURITY AND TECHNOLOGY
Cyber Threats Surge Across Europe
Europe faces an escalating cyber threat landscape with ransomware, data breaches, and state-backed attacks reaching what cybersecurity analysts characterize as a breaking point. Check Point’s latest threat intelligence report for November 24 identified multiple high-priority security concerns, including ransomware attacks and trojan malware campaigns targeting European infrastructure and organizations. The expanding threat environment reflects both the sophistication of adversarial actors and the vulnerability of critical systems across the continent.
Arctic Competition Intensifies
NATO’s military leadership has characterized the Arctic in 2025 as being at a crossroads, with Russia and China collaborating to reshape regional influence structures and challenge established rules of international conduct. Both Russia and China have conducted over 100 joint military exercises in the past 15 years, establishing a concerning pattern of coordination. China’s nuclear arsenal is expanding rapidly, projected to increase from approximately 600 warheads today to 1,500 by 2035, creating what analysts describe as “quantitative ambiguity” regarding Beijing’s true nuclear intentions despite its stated “no first use” policy.
NATO has announced its first successful exercise on the remote island of Jan Mayen, signaling enhanced Arctic capabilities. The U.S. and Finland have signed a $6.1 billion memorandum of understanding to co-develop 11 icebreakers to modernize Arctic operational capability. However, China has demonstrated its strategic interest in Arctic access by completing the first scheduled container service from East Asia to Northern Europe via the Northern Sea Route, reducing transit time by nearly half compared to traditional Cape routes. The September Arctic sea ice minimum marked the tenth lowest on record, facilitating extended access periods.
SOURCES
1. Check Point Research (2025). “24th November: Threat Intelligence Report.” Retrieved from https://research.checkpoint.com/2025/24th-november-threat-intelligence-report/
2. Defense One. “Most of the Air Force’s biggest programs will now be overseen by a 4-star under the deputy SecDef.” Retrieved from
https://www.defenseone.com
3. S&P Global Market Intelligence (2025). “Geopolitical Risk Brief: November 2025.” Retrieved from https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2025/11/geopolitical-risk-brief-november-2025
4. NPR/Associated Press (2025). “U.S. set to label Maduro-tied Cartel de los Soles as terror organization.” November 24, 2025. Retrieved from https://www.npr.org/2025/11/24/g-s1-99000/u-s-label-maduro-cartel-de-los-soles-terror-organization
5. Breaking Defense. “Shutdown deal adds $850M for B-21, Sentinel construction projects.” Retrieved from
https://breakingdefense.com
6. Geopolitical Monitor (2025). Various articles on geopolitical developments. Retrieved from
https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com
7. Cyble (2025). “Europe’s 2025 Threat Landscape Reaches a Breaking Point.” Retrieved from https://cyble.com/blog/europe-2025-cyber-threat-landscape-analysis/
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https://defence-blog.com
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10. i24NEWS (2025). “IDF Chief Of Staff Zamir Orders Dismissals Of Commanders From October 7.” November 23, 2025. Retrieved from https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel-at-war/artc-idf-chief-of-staff-zamir-orders-dismissals-of-commanders-from-october-7
11. RBC Ukraine (2025). “Russia-Ukraine war: Frontline update as of November 24.” November 23, 2025. Retrieved from https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russia-ukraine-war-frontline-update-as-of-1763980744.html
12. NPR (2025). “After October 7, Israel vowed to destroy Hamas. The war has spurred many to join it.” November 23, 2025. Retrieved from https://www.npr.org/2025/11/23/nx-s1-5606831/after-october-7-israel-vowed-to-destroy-hamas-the-war-has-spurred-many-to-join-it
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14. Military.com (2025). “European Officials Welcome Progress in Talks on US Proposals to End Russia-Ukraine War.” November 23, 2025. Retrieved from https://www.military.com/daily-news/2025/11/24/european-officials-welcome-progress-talks-us-proposals-end-russia-ukraine-war.htm
15. Al Jazeera (2025). “Live: Hezbollah considering response; Israeli attacks on Gaza continue.” November 24, 2025. Retrieved from https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2025/11/24/hezbollah-considering-response-israeli-attacks-on-gaza-continue
16. Rio Times Online (2025). “10 Key Military and Defense Developments (November 2-8, 2025).” November 8, 2025. Retrieved from https://www.riotimesonline.com/10-key-military-and-defense-developments-november-29-2025/
17. ABC News (2025). “European officials welcome progress in talks on US proposals to end Russia-Ukraine war.” November 24, 2025. Retrieved from https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/european-officials-progress-talks-us-proposals-end-russia-127815600
18. Times of Israel (2025). “Hamas officials in Cairo to discuss Gaza escalation, transition to Trump plan’s stage 2.” Retrieved from
https://www.timesofisrael.com
19. High North News (2025). “NATO’s Military Leader: ‘The Arctic in 2025 Is at a Crossroads.’” October 24, 2025. Retrieved from https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/natos-military-leader-arctic-2025-crossroads
20. Al Jazeera (2025). “Russia-Ukraine war live: Trump suggests ‘big progress’ in peace talks.” November 24, 2025. Retrieved from https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2025/11/24/russia-ukraine-war-live-eu-to-discuss-us-plan-several-killed-in-kharkiv
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1. https://www.npr.org/2025/11/24/g-s1-99000/u-s-label-maduro-cartel-de-los-soles-terror-organization
3. https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russia-ukraine-war-frontline-update-as-of-1763980744.html
10. https://research.checkpoint.com/2025/24th-november-threat-intelligence-report/
11. https://cyble.com/blog/europe-2025-cyber-threat-landscape-analysis/
12. https://theloop.ecpr.eu/what-the-two-peer-nuclear-challenge-means-for-nato-and-european-security/
13. https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/natos-military-leader-arctic-2025-crossroads
14. https://www.ey.com/en_gl/insights/geostrategy/geostrategic-analysis
15.
https://www.defenseone.com
16.
https://breakingdefense.com
17.
https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com
18.
https://defence-blog.com
19. https://www.riotimesonline.com/10-key-military-and-defense-developments-november-29-2025/
20.
https://www.timesofisrael.com
21. source-list-news-defence-and-security.pdf